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CLIMATE SCIENTISTS HAVE PREDICTED SEA-LEVEL RISE OVER THE NEXT CENTURY

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THEME:   LIFE STYLE, NATURE, WORLD

By Dan Bart | March 30, 2016 7:46 pm

In a study published Wednesday, March 30, 2016 in the journal Nature, Robert DeConto at the University of Massachusetts Amherst and David Pollard at Pennsylvania State University say previous ice-sheet-climate models “under-appreciated” the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet.

In a new study, two climate scientists say an accurate estimate of sea-level rise is actually double that of previous predictions.

DeConto and Pollard’s study uses new models to account specifically for Antarctic ice sheets, but they are not the first climate scientists to suggest sea level rise predictions by the IPCC and NOAA are underestimates. “With that warming, the flanks of Antarctica will start to melt drastically in about 50 to 100 years – and then it will start to kick in according to our model.”

Climate scientists have predicted sea-level rise over the next century

Climate scientists have predicted sea-level rise over the next century

In comparison, the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts a 0.5 meter rise over 1990 levels by 2100. “Global sea level is projected to rise during the 21st century at a greater rate than during 1961 to 2003,” suggests the IPCC, at a rate of 4 mm per year through the 2090s.

“You could think of all sorts of ways that we might duck this one,” Richard Alley, a leading expert on glacial ice at Pennsylvania State University and unaffiliated with the study, told The Times. “I’m hopeful that will happen. But given what we know, I don’t think we can tell people that we’re confident of that.”

“I have no doubt that on a century to millennia timescale, warming will make these processes significant in Antarctica, as well as Greenland, and drive a very significant Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise,” commented Prof David Vaughan of the British Antarctic Survey.

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